dev-ai-coding-metrics

v2026.09.24

Measures AI coding impact and extension robustness. Use when tracking delivery, quality trajectories, cost, experience, pilots, scorecards, or leadership reporting.

GitHub
安装命令
npx skhub add vasilyu1983/dev-ai-coding-metrics
Markdown
SKILL.md

AI Coding Metrics

Measures coding assistants and coding agents without collapsing results into vanity metrics or one blended score.

The critical distinction is mode: assistants help inline or in chat; agents execute multi-step work and need task-level measurement. Do not measure them as if they were the same thing.

When to Use This Skill

TriggerExample
Designing a pilot or rollout scorecard"We're rolling out Copilot to 200 engineers — what do we measure?"
Diagnosing usage-up / outcomes-flat"Seat utilization is 80% but PR throughput is unchanged"
Comparing assistant vs. agent workflows"Should we instrument these separately?"
Building an ROI model or leadership report"Finance wants a renewal decision by Q3"
Designing an experiment better than vendor benchmarks"We can't trust the vendor's numbers — how do we run our own study?"

Defaults

RuleRationale
Start from the decision, not the telemetry availablePrevents instrument-what-is-easy bias
Separate assistant and agent funnelsMixing hides which workflow drives results
Pair every speed metric with quality + experienceSpeed alone is misleading
Aggregate at team levelIndividual dashboards become surveillance
Treat benchmarks as capability signals, not business KPIsBenchmark gaps do not equal production gaps

Workflow

  1. Define the decision.
  2. Pick the program mode: assistant, agent, or mixed.
  3. Build the minimum viable scorecard.
  4. Choose the study design.
  5. Produce one deliverable.

ASCII Flow

AI coding metrics request
  -> decision to support: buy, renew, improve, prove, or diagnose
  -> split mode: assistant, agent, or mixed
  -> select scorecard families: adoption, delivery, quality, economics, experience
  -> choose study design and baseline window
  -> collect team-level and task-level evidence
  -> report confidence, sample size, and confounds
  -> deliver ROI model, dashboard, experiment plan, or executive report

Quick Reference

Decision to Deliverable Map

DecisionDefault Output
buy, renew, or cut a toolROI model plus executive report
improve adoptionadoption metrics plus survey
prove delivery impactproductivity metrics plus experiment plan
check quality driftquality metrics plus dashboard
understand trust or frictiondeveloper-experience metrics plus survey
evaluate coding agentsagent-execution metrics plus experiment plan

Program Modes

ModeUnit of AnalysisPrimary Emphasis
assistantdeveloper-day, team-week, repo-monthadoption, delivery, quality, experience
agenttask, PR, workflow runtask success, merge, revert, review burden, cost per accepted change
mixedteam-week plus task-level samplesseparate the two funnels before combining results

Metric Families

Use the smallest scorecard that can answer the decision:

FamilyWhat It Tells You
adoptionwhether usage is real and sustained
deliverywhether software flow is faster where AI actually touches the path
qualitywhether speed gains are offset by defects, rework, review burden, or declining extension robustness
economicswhether the value justifies tool and operating cost
experiencewhether developers trust the tool and want to keep using it
agent executionwhether autonomous workflows succeed in production, not just in demos

Study Design Defaults

Minimum baseline: 8 weeks of pre-intervention data. Two-week baselines produce noisy causal inference — week-to-week variance in PR throughput, review lag, and defect escape routinely exceeds the signal size of AI tooling effects.

SituationDesign
new pilot, no control groupbefore/after with ≥8 weeks baseline
enough comparable teamsmatched A/B or stratified assignment
teams resist permanent denial of toolscrossover design
agent workflow change on one task familytask-level shadow comparison or reviewer-blind evaluation
leadership wants a fast answerbalanced scorecard with explicit caveats, not a causal claim

Cohort and denominator contract

Freeze the measurement population before reading outcomes. Record the eligible population, assignment rule, actual exposure, observation window, and accepted outcome for each metric. Report eligible, assigned, exposed, and observed counts side by side; never silently replace the assigned cohort with active users, completed tasks, or merged PRs. That survivor-only denominator makes adoption and success look better precisely when setup failures, abandoned agent runs, or unmerged changes are the problem.

For incomplete observations, name the reason (not_started, abandoned, still_open, telemetry_missing, or excluded_by_rule) and keep it in the funnel. Treat still-open work as right-censored rather than failed until the outcome window closes. A report may be directional with imperfect telemetry, but it must state which denominator supports each percentage and how missing cases could change the decision.

Measurement Checklist

Use before publishing any AI coding report:

  • Baseline established (≥8 weeks before intervention)
  • Assistant and agent funnels tracked separately
  • Every speed metric paired with at least one quality metric
  • Sample size, confidence level, and study design stated
  • Confounds documented (team changes, release pressure, policy changes)
  • Vendor evidence labeled as vendor evidence
  • Usage measured after stabilization (not week-1 novelty period)
  • Review burden and rework cost included in ROI model
  • Edit-capable agents measured across evolving-spec checkpoints, including late-checkpoint cost and quality slopes
  • Aggregated at team level (no manager-visible individual dashboards)

Current Evidence Posture (as of 2026-08-21)

ClaimEvidenceCaveat
AI amplifies existing strengths and weaknessesDORA 2025 AI report; conditional-impact model confirmedNot a universal accelerant
Experienced developers ~19% slower with early-2025 tools (RCT)METR July 2025 RCT, realistic open-source tasksSpecific to early-2025 tooling generation
METR believes developers more sped-up in 2026 than 2025METR Feb 2026 update30-50% of participants declined no-AI tasks (selection bias); unreliable signal
Self-reported: median 1.4-2x value of work from AI (2026)METR May 2026 survey, n=349Self-report; METR found 40pp gap between perceived and actual gains in 2025 study
Throughput +66%, PR review time +441%, incidents per PR +243%Faros AI 2026 telemetry, 22k devs / 4k teamsOrganizational telemetry, not RCT; PRs merged without review up +31%
DORA 2025: 90% of developers use AI dailyDORA 2025 AI reportAdoption does not equal delivery impact
Modeled first-year AI ROI ~39% (500-person org); adoption raises change-failure rate (5%->6%), an "instability tax"DORA 2026 ROI of AI-Assisted Software Development report (Apr 2026)Vendor-modeled scenario, not a cross-org RCT; treat the 39% figure as an illustrative scenario, not a universal benchmark
AI yields 35-40% gains on simple tasks but ~10% on complex legacy codeDORA 2026 ROI reportReinforces task-complexity segmentation already required by this skill's study design defaults
DX Core 4 unifies DORA + SPACE + DevEx into 4 dimensions (Speed, Effectiveness, Quality, Business Impact)DX Core 4, formalized publicly Apr 2026Vendor framework; specific benchmarks need independent replication
One-shot pass rates can miss degradation across repeated agent editsSlopCodeBench v1, Mar 2026 preprintPython experiments only; trajectory signals are not correctness proofs or universal targets

Anti-Gaming Checklist

Reject a scorecard or report if any of the following apply:

  • Single blended AI productivity score mixing usage, speed, sentiment, and quality
  • Seat activation or prompt volume cited as delivery impact
  • Cross-team comparison without controlling for stack, task mix, staffing, or release pressure
  • Measurement period is <8 weeks or includes week-1 novelty window
  • Vendor benchmark cited as production ROI evidence
  • Review burden excluded from ROI model
  • Individual-level AI usage visible to managers
  • Directional before/after movement stated as causal without controlled design
  • SlopCodeBench averages or trajectory signals used as organizational targets or causal ROI evidence

Navigation

References

Assets and data

Scripts

Cross-References

Fact-Checking

  • Known bugs, regressions, framework/compiler/runtime footguns, and version-specific crash or workaround guidance must be verified against current primary web sources before being treated as current fact.
  • Verify current research claims, benchmark status, and vendor telemetry specifics before final advice.
  • Prefer peer-reviewed, official, and first-party telemetry docs over social or vendor marketing claims.
  • If live verification is unavailable, mark current-evidence claims as unverified.

Learnings Loop

When prior decisions or pitfalls are relevant, consult learnings.consolidated.md if present; use learnings.md only for needed history or as the available fallback. Otherwise skip both.

After applying it, if you encountered a pattern worth remembering, a mistake worth preventing, or a domain fact that surprised you, append one dated bullet to learnings.md via agents-skills-feedback-loop/scripts/append_learning.py. Do not modify SKILL.md itself.

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版本

v2026.09.24

发布时间

2026年9月24日

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许可证

MIT

源路径

frameworks/shared-skills/skills/dev-ai-coding-metrics

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main

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