Unknown: Strategy Blind Spot Analysis

Surface hidden assumptions and strategic blind spots using the Known/Unknown 4-quadrant lens.

When to Use

Strategy documents that look coherent but are hard to execute
Plans with unclear risk boundaries
Decision discussions where the team asks: "What are we missing?"

For requirement clarification, use interview. For content/form leverage decisions, use metamedium.

Core Lens

Classify insights into four quadrants:

Known Knowns (KK): validated facts and working mechanisms
Known Unknowns (KU): explicit uncertainties requiring experiments
Unknown Knowns (UK): existing but underused assets/capabilities
Unknown Unknowns (UU): unobserved risks requiring early-warning antennas

Default resource split (adjustable):

KK 60%: systematize
KU 25%: experiment
UK 10%: leverage
UU 5%: install antennas

Non-Negotiable Interaction Rule

Use AskUserQuestion for each round (R1/R2/R3). Ask with hypothesis options, not open free-text prompts. On Codex the equivalent tool is request_user_input; with no structured-question tool, present the same options as a numbered plain-text list and wait for the reply.

3-Round Pattern

R1 (3-4 questions): broad scan across all quadrants
R2 (2-3 questions): drill into weakest link discovered in R1
R3 (2-3 questions, optional): execution detail for top priorities

Cap total questions at 7-10.

Protocol

Phase 1: Intake

If a doc is provided, extract goals, assumptions, dependencies, and unstated constraints.

Phase 2: Context Sweep

Scan project context (README, plans, prior notes) to identify likely UK candidates (assets the team has but is not using).

Phase 3: Draft + R1

Create a provisional 4-quadrant draft, then run R1 AskUserQuestion (single batched call).

Phase 4: R2 Deepening

Design R2 only from R1 responses:

Compound bottlenecks
Surprising answers
"Other" selections

Phase 5: R3 Execution (optional)

If needed, confirm owner, timeline, stop-criteria, and promotion conditions.

Phase 6: Playbook Output

Produce a structured playbook using references/playbook-template.md.

Rules

Hypotheses as options
R2 derives from R1, R3 derives from R2
Include both what to start and what to stop
Every KU gets promotion condition and kill condition
Prefer small experiments over large speculative plans

Additional Resources

references/question-design.md
references/playbook-template.md

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