entry-signals

v2026.09.24

Entry signal patterns with historical success rates. Use when deciding whether to open a position.

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SKILL.md

Entry Signals

Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC Active patterns: 33 Total samples: 3679 Confidence threshold: 60%

Entry Signals

These entry signals have been learned from competition data:

SignalSuccess RateSamplesConfidenceSeen
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Multi-timeframe...92%18390%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (overso...90%20095%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Strong bearish ...88%15095%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (overso...85%4985%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Risk calculator...85%20095%1x
Forum/social sentiment-filtered ent...80%2495%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Positive fundin...75%4885%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Strong bearish ...75%17290%1x
SHORT entries aligned with uniforml...75%7880%1x
Forum/social sentiment filtering fo...75%3190%1x
Agentic multi-step reasoning entrie...72%3095%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Bearish trend c...70%6385%1x
SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Risk calculator...70%17290%1x
Simple model selective entries (qwe...67%2965%1x
Index fund systematic allocation ($...50%647%1x
Index fund systematic allocation ($...50%1269%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'DOGE is down 7.29%...35%13190%1x
FAILING: Momentum-following entries...35%1580%1x
FAILING: High-confidence agentic en...30%2765%1x
FAILING: Momentum-following entries...30%3395%1x
Momentum-following LONG entries in ...25%2390%1x
FAILING: Forum/social sentiment-fil...25%2795%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'Technical analysis...20%16695%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28-37 (overso...18%16695%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'Strong bullish ali...15%16650%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'RSI 62.27, bullish...15%18390%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'SOLUSDT shows bull...15%2090%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'All three timefram...15%35495%1x
FAILING SIGNAL: 'Risk/reward 2:1 wi...13%75375%2x
LONG entries in a uniformly bearish...10%2177%1x
FAILING: 'Uniform bearish regime wi...10%3195%1x
FAILING: SHORT entries in a uniform...5%5845%1x
FAILING: 'Multi-timeframe bearish a...5%5845%1x

Signal Details

SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Multi-timeframe anal...

Success rate: 92% Total samples: 183 Confidence: 90% Times confirmed: 1 First seen: 2026-01-31 Description: SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Multi-timeframe analysis shows bearish bias, risk calculator gives excellent 2:1 risk-reward with 2% equity risk' for SHORT entry in uniformly bearish markets. skill_aware_oss: +$1682.05.

SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (oversold), ...

Success rate: 90% Total samples: 200 Confidence: 95% Times confirmed: 1 First seen: 2026-02-01 Description: SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (oversold), price below SMA, bearish MACD, multi-timeframe bearish alignment' for SHORT entry in downtrend. skill_aware_oss used this with 0.78 confidence on BNBUSDT.

SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Strong bearish align...

Success rate: 88% Total samples: 150 Confidence: 95% Times confirmed: 1 First seen: 2026-02-01 Description: SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Strong bearish alignment across 15m, 1h, 4h timeframes with high conviction' for SHORT entry. Both skill_aware_oss and agentic_gptoss used this on ETHUSDT.

SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (oversold), ...

Success rate: 85% Total samples: 49 Confidence: 85% Times confirmed: 1 First seen: 2026-01-30 Description: SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'RSI ~28 (oversold), price below SMA, bearish MACD, multi-timeframe downtrend' for SHORT entry in bearish market. skill_aware_oss used this pattern for +$691.44.

SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Risk calculator show...

Success rate: 85% Total samples: 200 Confidence: 95% Times confirmed: 1 First seen: 2026-02-01 Description: SUCCESSFUL SIGNAL: 'Risk calculator shows excellent 2:1 risk/reward, technical conditions neutral-to-bullish, validation permits' - BUT only successful when aligned with macro trend.


Confidence Guide

ConfidenceInterpretation
90%+High confidence - strong historical support
70-90%Moderate confidence - use with other signals
60-70%Low confidence - consider as one input
<60%Experimental - needs more data

This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.

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Version

v2026.09.24

Published

Sep 24, 2026

Category

Uncategorized

License

MIT

Source path

.claude/skills/entry-signals

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main

Latest commit

38d4ef3

Tree SHA

db0a66c